Mild weekend temps; winter storm watch Sunday evening through Monday

Friday felt March-like, with a high temperature of 44 degrees at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport.

That was our warmest official Twin Cities high temp since December 4, and it was 20 degrees warmer than our average high of 24 degrees.

Mild highs are expected all across Minnesota this weekend, with 30s in most areas.

Winter storm watch

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Parts of southern Minnesota, the Twin Cities metro area and western Wisconsin could see significant snow from Sunday evening through Monday.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch, which begins Sunday evening, for those areas:

rt0119wch2
NWS La Crosse, Wi

Here are details of the winter storm watch for the Twin Cities metro area and points to the south and southwest:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

308 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

...Winter storm to affect central and southern Minnesota and

Western Wisconsin Sunday night into Monday...

.A strong storm system will bring an area of moderate to heavy

snow across a portion of southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin

Sunday night, spreading east through Monday. Snowfall totals of 6

to 10 inches are possible by the time the storm exits the region

Monday evening. At this point, the heaviest snow will fall south

of a line from Redwood Falls through the Twin Cities toward

St Croix Falls and Rice Lake. Other areas that may see heavy snow

include Fairmont, Mankato, River Falls and Eau Claire.

A wintry mix with a period of freezing rain is possible in south

central Minnesota near the Iowa border, then toward Eau Claire,

leading to slick roads. Winds will be around 20 to 35 mph which

will cause blowing and drifting snow, especially in open country.

Winds will begin diminishing Monday night. Remember, this is

still a Winter Storm watch, and the track of the heaviest snow may

change as the forecast is updated over the next couple of days.

Be prepared for difficult driving conditions if you have travel

plans across central or southern Minnesota and western and

northern Wisconsin.

MNZ060>063-066>070-073>077-082>084-091-200515-

/O.EXT.KMPX.WS.A.0002.180122T0000Z-180123T0000Z/

Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-

Dakota-Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Watonwan-Blue Earth-

Waseca-Martin-

Including the cities of Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater,

Hutchinson, Gaylord, Chaska, Shakopee, Hastings, Redwood Falls,

New Ulm, St Peter, Le Sueur, Faribault, St James, Mankato,

Waseca, and Fairmont

308 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH

MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow is possible. Plan on difficult travel

conditions, including during the morning commute on Monday.

Total snow accumulations of 7 to 10 inches are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central and

southwest Minnesota.

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause

blowing and drifting snow in open areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant

snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue

to monitor the latest forecasts.

In parts of southeastern Minnesota, it will be snow and possibly some periods of sleet, light rain and light freezing rain:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service La Crosse WI

301 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

...Storm System To Bring Snow And A Wintry Mix To The Area Sunday

Evening Through Monday Evening...

.A storm system will impact travel starting late Sunday and

continuing through Monday with accumulating snow and a wintry mix

of sleet and light freezing rain. The storm track may shift which

will greatly impact snowfall and any icing amounts. At this time

snowfall amounts of 6 inches or more are possible along with ice

accumulation of up to one tenth inch. Snowfall and icing amounts

will be fine tuned over the next couple of days. Stay up to date

on the latest forecast as changes are likely.

MNZ079-086>088-094-WIZ017-029-032>034-200515-

/O.NEW.KARX.WS.A.0002.180122T0000Z-180123T0600Z/

Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-

Trempealeau-Jackson-

Including the cities of Wabasha, Dodge Center, Rochester, Winona,

Austin, Medford, Neillsville, Alma, Arcadia, Whitehall,

and Black River Falls

301 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH

MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow and mixed precipitation possible. Difficult travel

conditions are possible, including during the morning commute

on Monday. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 6 inches or

more are possible and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an

inch are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Minnesota through central

Wisconsin.

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions in visibility are

possible. Wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph could create areas of

blowing and drifting snow in open areas, especially on Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant

snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue

to monitor the latest forecasts.

A summary, from the La Crosse, Wisconsin office of the NWS:

rt0119wch3
NWS La Crosse, WI

Forecast models

A low pressure system is expected to be over the Oklahoma panhandle Sunday morning.

From there it moves northeastward, arriving in southern Wisconsin Monday afternoon.

It'll spin moisture over much of the upper Midwest Sunday night and Monday.

Here’s the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System (GFS) model for Sunday through Monday evening:

rt119gfs2
NOAA GFS precipitation rate (mm/hour) Sunday through Monday evening, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the amount of precipitation.

Here are the snowfall totals racked up in the GFS model:

rt119gfsno2
NOAA GFS snow totals from Sunday through Monday evening, via tropicaltidbits

It’s likely to be a wet snow, so the snow to water ratio could be closer to 7 or 8 to 1 than the 10 to 1 ratio used in the snow graphic above.

A lower snow to water ratio would lower the snow totals a bit.

Here’s the snowfall generated in the latest run of the Canadian forecast model:

rt119gemsno2
anadian GEM forecast model snow totals Sunday through Monday evening, via tropicaltidbits

We’ll monitor changes in the forecast models and give you updates as we get closer to Sunday evening.

A shift in the storm track or a big change in the strength of the low pressure system will change the location of the heaviest snow band.

Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network and you can read about weather updates on the MPR News live weather blog.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.