Steamy Saturday southeast, thunder chance for some

Our Saturday will be steamy for some Minnesotans, but cool and wet for others.

A stationary front runs diagonally from southwestern Minnesota to the northeast.

Heat index values are expected to climb into the 90s Saturday afternoon to the southeast of the front:

According to the National Weather Service:

Create a More Connected Minnesota

MPR News is your trusted resource for the news you need. With your support, MPR News brings accessible, courageous journalism and authentic conversation to everyone - free of paywalls and barriers. Your gift makes a difference.

The Heat Index is a measure of how hot it really feels when relative humidity is factored in with the actual air temperature.

Temperature trends

Saturday afternoon highs are expected to range from the 60s in northwestern Minnesota to the lower 90s in far southeastern Minnesota.

Some spots in the Twin Cities metro area could reach 90 degrees, which is well above our average high of 69 degrees for this date.

On Sunday, highs could range from the 50s in far northwestern Minnesota to the upper 80s in the southeast:

rt0924h2

The cooler air spreads eastward on Monday:

rt0925h

Highs in the Twin Cities metro area are expected to be in the 60s next Tuesday through Friday.

Rain chances

The best chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night is expected to remain over about the northwestern half of Minnesota.

The Twin Cities metro area could see a late afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm, but the best rain chances stay to the northwest.

On Sunday, the northwestern half of Minnesota will have the best chance of some showers and thunderstorms, but rain chances increase late in the day to the east.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Sunday and Sunday night:

rt0923rad
NOAA NAM simulated radar from Sunday morning through Monday morning, via tropicaltidbits

Severe weather outlook

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a marginal risk of severe weather Saturday and Saturday night from southwestern and west-central Minnesota northeastward:

rt0923svr
NWS Storm Prediction Center

Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

The Minnesota Public Radio Network will let you know if any watches and warning are issued, and you can also get severe weather updates on the MPR news live weather blog.

Warm lows

You know it's warm when your low temperatures are setting records.

The low temp on Friday was only 73 degrees at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport.

That was a record warm low temp for September 22 in the Twin Cities:

Our Saturday low temp might also set a record for warmth, since the lowest temp at MSP airport through 7 a.m. Saturday was 73 degrees.

Fall colors

Today's Fall color report from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources shows some good fall color in much of northern Minnesota:

rt0923fallclr
Minnesota Department of Natural Resources

Patches of good fall color can also be seen in central and southeastern Minnesota.

Hurricane Maria 

rt0923hurrsat
Infrared to visible loop of Maria Saturday morning. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

The Saturday morning update from the National Hurricane Center showed that Maria had max winds of 120 mph.

Maria was centered 340 miles east of Nassau, and was moving to the north-northwest.

Here's the possible track of Maria, according to the NHC:

rt0923mariatrk
National Hurricane Center

The Saturday morning update on Hurricane Maria states she will turn to the north on Sunday:

BULLETIN

Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 29

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017

500 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS

ISLANDS...

...HIGH SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE

SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST...

 

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...24.8N 72.0W

ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ENE OF SAN SALVADOR

ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM E OF NASSAU

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Bahamas has discontinued the

Tropical Storm Warning for the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos

Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located

near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 72.0 West. Maria is moving

toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general

motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the

north is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, Maria should

move away from the Bahamas into the open waters of the western

Atlantic today.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher

gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected during

the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles

(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND: Locally gusty winds are possible across the central and

southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands today.

STORM SURGE: Water levels in the southeastern Bahamas and the

Turks and Caicos Islands will subside as Maria moves away from those

islands.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce additional rainfall

accumulations of less than one inch, with isolated maximum amounts

near 2 inches over Turks and Caicos and the eastern Bahamas through

Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the

Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and

Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells will begin to

increase along portions of the southeastern United States coast and

Bermuda today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening

surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your

local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.