Aug-tober weekend; Implications of Euro’s Joaquin ‘victory’

Another sunny day in paradise.

That's been the throw away phrase for our forecast for the past few weeks it seems. The Land of 10,000 Lakes is on a weather winning streak of sorts. Our string of nearly perfect days features a showery speed bump overnight tonight into Thursday. After that, yet another glorious weekend brings plenty of sunshine and late August temperatures.

Aug-tober here we come.

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Showers late tonight

Our mostly sunny Wednesday features a few high cirrus clouds gliding in aloft from the west. It's the lead indicator of the next inbound low pressure system. Showers spread across Minnesota tonight into Thursday morning as the low zips through.

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The incoming system is favors northern Minnesota and Wisconsin for the most widespread soaking rains.

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Another spectacular weekend

I've noticed a lot of happy people these days. That spring in your step could be the seventh consecutive weekend with lots of sun, little rain and pleasant temps. Yes, we must have done something right in Minnesota to earn this remarkable string of glorious weekends since that rainy Saturday on Aug. 22.

Get ready for another.

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Weatherspark NOAA GFS data

MSP frost chances late next week?

Today, Oct. 7, is the average for the fall season's first 32 degree reading at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. Oct. 10 is closer to the most recent 30-year average. Yes, the first frost of fall is trending later in recent decades as the growing season gets measurably longer.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Forecast System model continues to hint at the potential for the first metro freezing temp late next week.

Frost on the pumpkins in the inner metro core by next Saturday, Oct. 17?

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NOAA via IPS Meteostar

European model's 'win' vs NOAA's GFS: What does it mean?

There's been a lot of talk in the weather community about the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model's clear "victory" over NOAA's GFS and other forecast models with the eventual offshore track of Hurricane Joaquin.

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One interesting sideline is that most of the U.S. models correctly predicted the historic rainfall event for South Carolina, even as many missed the track for Joaquin.

Fellow weather blogger Capital Weather Gang's Jason Samenow has a great write up on what the European model's victory on Joaquin may or may not mean.

Full disclosure here: I met Jason at a climate change communication conference we both spoke at and toured the Washington Post with him last fall. Jason and I have also had some great conversations on MPR's Climate Cast.

I agree with many of Jason's thoughts in this excellent piece. I am also in the camp that believes NOAA's forecast models need to perform much better on the big  "hurricane stage."

Here's more from Capital Weather Gang.

Last week, on the biggest of stages, a weather forecast model from Europe proved superior to the principal U.S. model in its prediction for a hurricane threatening the United States.

The European model, from the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts, consistently* and correctly forecast Hurricane Joaquin would remain out to sea, sparing the East Coast.  Meanwhile, the U.S. model, known as the Global Forecast System (GFS) model, for two days, predicted Joaquin would veer toward the coast, bruising the Mid-Atlantic.

Eventually, the GFS model forecast shifted to the correct solution, but the European model had the correct forecast about 24 hours before the GFS, emerging victorious.

Some in the weather community, as well as interested enthusiasts, are making much out of the European model’s win.  Its triumph in this significant forecast is not meaningless, but it’s also neither a huge deal nor unsurprising.  And it does not detract from other important advances being made by the National Weather Service in hurricane forecasting.