Warm front: 60’s ahead, ice out comes early

In spite of our recent chill down, March is running warmer than average in Minnesota so far this year.

This month seems determined to go out like a lamb. We are just 48 hours away from a warm front that will advect (blow in) an air mass 5 to 10 degrees warmer than average to close the month.

• +3.6 degrees -- March temps vs. average so far at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport

• 32.1 inches season snowfall total at MSP Airport

• 2nd lowest season snowfall total in past 10 years (22.3 inches in 2011-12)

Warm front ahead

We endure 48 more hours of chilly March breezes before winds turn southerly and begin to deliver a more spring-like air mass.

By Saturday afternoon, you'll feel a spring in your step as temps crack the 40s again as milder breezes blow around the back side of retreating high pressure.

Here's a more detailed look at the warm up. Above average temps return by Sunday and last well into next week.

Hang in there!

Ice out comes early

One look at ice free ponds around the weather lab tells me the ice is going out early this year. Ice out for several lakes in southern Minnesota is coming into the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources.

Lake Nokomis was ice free Wednesday, that's about 10 days earlier than the average of April 4. My prediction for Lake Minnetonka ice out was April 2 at 3:28 pm. With the incoming wind and warmer temps this weekend, it looks like I have a shot this year.

Here's a look at ice outs coming into the Minnesota DNR so far.

Speaking of ice out, I hope you can join in at the 5th annual Freshwater Society Ice Out/Loon In event April 23 at the brand new Securian Club at CHS Field in St. Paul.

I have volunteered as emcee for this event for several years and look forward to a great night at the brand new St. Paul Saints stadium.

I am told this is the first official event to be held at the new stadium, so it should be a great opportunity to see the brand new facility.

Trouble in (severe) weather paradise?

Yesterday I wrote about the possible issues with NOAA's new severe risk categories in their convective outlook.

I mean seriously. How is the average weather consumer supposed to digest and process this?

It appears I am not alone in my assessment that the new formula is too confusing. In the heart of tornado alley, Oklahoma City, Okla., TV meteorologists have already taken widely different roads on using, or not using the new system.

Here's more on the evolving confusion from the Vane.

Oklahoma City is one of the most threatened cities in the United States when it comes to severe weather. At least once a year—often more than that—nature throws violent tornadoes, enormous hail, and destructive winds at the city on the plains.

That's why many people have found it a little unsettling that the city's news stations have shrugged off any attempt at standardization and decided to do their own thing when they talk about severe weather.

Do these stations have a responsibility to prevent confusion among the public by using different terminology when forecasting the same severe weather event? This debate is raging among weather geeks on social media this afternoon, with even television meteorologists coming down on different sides of the issue.

One of the bigger weather stories over the past couple of months is that the Storm Prediction Center — the National Weather Service agency responsible for issuing severe weather forecasts—rejiggered their forecasts to make their severe weather outlooks less confusing to the public.

Their forecasts used to run on a four-category scale: non-severe thunderstorms, slight risk for severe thunderstorms, moderate risk, and high risk.

Each of these categories correlates to a different probability for severe weather. Under the old system, when there was a low-grade risk (say, a 5% chance of damaging winds), they used to paint that area under a general risk for non-severe thunderstorms and slap a big "SEE TEXT" over the map to clarify a few severe storms aren't out of the question.

Nobody but weather geeks ever actually read the text, so most people missed the fact that there could be severe weather even though the map indicated otherwise.

For my MPR News weather casts, I am likely to simplify the message this year. I'm tweaking this, but envision using three categories to explain the severe weather threat to listeners.

• Low/no severe weather risk (continue normal operations)

• Severe weather possible - (stay situationally aware)

• Severe weather likely - (maintain a heightened level of awareness)

Effective communication is key during severe weather. It's going to be an interesting season to see how different media outlets use NOAA's new categories this year.