Summer breeze, storms gather out west tonight

What kind of irresponsible meteorologist would start a weather blog with a song anyway?

Just in case you decided to read on. Yes, our breezes feel more like summer this afternoon. Southerly winds bring in milder air today.

Showers and thunderstorms gather in the Red River Valley for the eventual trip southeast tonight as the next low pressure wave takes aim at Minnesota.

Tale of two forecasts

Sometimes weather forecasting is like living in parallel universes. If this happens, there's one weather future. If that, another.

The timing of precip over the next 48 hours is dependent on many things including residual cloud cover from a probable thunderstorms complex tracking southeast along Interstate 94 from Fargo to the Twin Cities late tonight. Different models come up with different solutions. We get to sort out the most likely weather reality.

The most likely rainfall timing scenario seems to be a strong mesoscale convective system developing in the Red River Valley today and tracking southeast tonight arriving in the metro by early morning. The sunrise surprise scenario is a common theme during a Minnesota summer.

At this point I'm leaning toward a good chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms arriving well after midnight toward Wednesday morning in the Twin Cities.

A few storms will likely reach severe limits today in the Red River Valley. There is a borderline risk tomorrow near the metro and southern Minnesota.

Soggy Stones?

Timing of rainfall is still dicey at this point for the Rolling Stones show at TCF Bank Stadium Wednesday night.

Most solutions project a potentially dry window Wednesday evening, with another round of rain possible Thursday. I can't rule out a 30 percent chance of rain Wednesday evening just yet.

I'll be tossing the rain gear in the car tomorrow night just in case. I was here watching lightning dance across the sky and dancing in the rain at the outstanding U2 show four years ago.

Stay tuned.

Here's an overall look at rainfall chances through the upcoming weekend.

First summer heat in sight?

Summer takes firm hold next week with a string of 80s according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model.

The overall pattern looks favorable for the first significant heat spell of the summer after that. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System model hints at the season's first 90 degree temps between about June 13 to 18. That seems to fit the overall pattern to my eye.

We managed to squeak out just 2 90-plus degrees days in the Twin Cities last summer. My hunch is we'll see many more days of 90 degree heat this summer. The average is about 12 days in the Twin Cities. I think we make that number or better this summer.

Time to get the AC unit tuned up for the season?