Near perfect Fourth of July weekend weather ahead

There are a few forecasts every year we sweat in the Weather Lab. The Fourth of July weekend may be at the top of that list.

We earn our summer holiday weekends in Minnesota. Winter white-outs. Bright red severe swarms on Doppler during severe season. Your local weatherperson wants to deliver good news.

Depending on the time of year that news might be a good soaking rain if needed. Or a dry sunny spell after a week of downpours. Or some snow the week of the Birkebeiner. On one of the "Big 3" big summer holiday weekends it's usually a sunny, warm, lake-worthy forecast.

For the Fourth of July weekend 2016? Weather mission accomplished.

Great timing: Inbound Canadian high pressure

What's the ideal scenario for sunny mild weather in Minnesota? How about a pleasantly mild Canadian air mass slipping slowly south over Minnesota, then spreading her wings over the Great Lakes. You can't draw it up any better than this heading into a holiday weekend.

The high-pressure zone will deflect any advancing rain showers over most of Minnesota this weekend. A few showers may leak into northern Minnesota by Sunday. Here's the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's NAM 4 km model.

Here's the quick look forecast for the Twin Cities through the Fourth of July. My idea of weather perfection.

Heading up north? I hear the North Shore is nice this time of year. Here's the forecast from the Duluth National Weather Service office.

Highs in the 70s and 80s for the Fourth of July? Priceless.

Heat returns next week

Southerly flow returns next week with more heat and humidity. Temperatures should push the 90-degree mark in the Twin Cities by late next week. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center picks up on the developing heat push late next week.

Drought creeps back

As expected, here's the updated drought monitor this week.

Spotty localized rains Thursday

If you picked up a decent soaking with Thursday's localized thundershowers congratulations on your luck. You may want to buy a lottery ticket. One cluster of cells blew up over St. Paul and quickly ran southeast down the Mississippi River.

Seeley: June another warmer than average month

June is the 10th consecutive warmer than average month for the Twin Cities. Mark Seeely has more on this month in this week's Weather Talk. Here's a pre-post time preview for Updraft readers.

Topic: Preliminary June Climate Summary

For most of Minnesota June was warm, with an average monthly temperature that ranged from 1 to3°F greater than normal.

Extreme temperatures ranged from 100 degrees F at Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) on the 12th to just 28 degrees F at Embarrass (St Louis County) on the 8th.

A few days with dew points in the 70s F pushed the Heat Index above 100 degrees F at several locations and caused the National Weather Service to issue several Heat Advisories.

Rainfall for the month was above normal in most areas, except for west-central counties, and some isolated areas of northwestern Minnesota in the Red River Valley, which reported less than normal rainfall for the month.

The largest one-day rainstorm was 5.25 inches just southwest of Mankato over June 14-15. Several areas of the state reported some short-lived flooding from severe thunderstorms, and several tornadoes were reported, along with large hail.