Clippers bracket weekend, impressive Deep South snow totals

Two distinct clipper systems sail through Minnesota over the next 72 hours.

The Twin Cities gets grazed by Friday night's passing clipper. The second clipper sails south along a similar track Sunday night into Monday morning. That one may affect Monday morning rush hour.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System captures the essence of the two systems.

Glancing blow Friday night for the Twin Cities

Gusty northwest winds kick in behind the system overnight Friday into Saturday morning.

Northern Minnesota snow

Snowfall rates in northeast Minnesota and northern Wisconsin are rather impressive. I've seen visibility under 1 mile in some of the snow bands. That translates into a quick 1 to 3 inches of fresh fluff tonight.

Typical December chill levels

Temperatures run a few degrees either side of average the next few days. The average high and low for the Twin Cities Saturday? 29 and 14. NOAA forecast temperatures for Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport below via Weather Bell.

Brief Pre-Christmas thaw?

Overall the next two weeks look seasonably cold. Highs in the 20s across Minnesota are pretty typical weather fare as we move into mid-December. A few of the upper air maps suggest a brief Pacific surge and thaw in the days before Christmas.

Snow chance?

Other than our minor clippers, I don't see any big snow chances for the next week or so. NOAA's GFS hints at something that could produce a few inches along about Dec. 18.

It's still very low confidence that far out, but at least some hope for snow lovers.

White Christmas?

Christmas is two weeks from Monday. How did that happen exactly?  Model runs strongly favor temperatures mostly below freezing the next two weeks across Minnesota. Most of the snow we get in the next two weeks will stick around.

Historically chances for a white Christmas run about 71 percent in the Twin Cities. It's closer to 100 percent up north.

Here's the scoop on the climatology of a white Christmas from the Minnesota DNR Climate Working Group.

Will we have a white Christmas? It's an age-old question that occurs to almost everyone this time of year. The chances of having a white Christmas vary even here in Minnesota. Having a white Christmas is loosely defined as having 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day.

The snow depth at most sites is measured once a day, usually in the morning. The best chances of having a white Christmas is almost guaranteed in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area and a good part of the Arrowhead. The chances decrease to the south and west and the best chance for a "brown" Christmas is in far southwest Minnesota where chances are a little better than 60%.

Northern Minnesota is one of the few non-alpine climates in the US where a white Christmas is almost a sure bet (U.S. White Christmas Probabilities).

In 116 years of snow depth measurements in Twin Cities, a white Christmas happens about 72% of the time. From 1899 to 2015 there have been 34 years with either a "zero" or a "trace." The last time the Twin Cities has seen a brown Christmas was 2015. 2014 was also a "brown Christmas."

The deepest snow cover on December 25th was in 1983 with a hefty 20 inches. It was also a very cold Christmas in 1983, with the high temperature of one (1) degree F. It was not the coldest Christmas Day in the Twin Cities.

That dubious award goes to 1996 with a "high" temperature of 9 below zero F. The warmest Christmas Day in the Twin Cities was 51 degrees in 1922. There was not a white Christmas that year. In fact, the Minneapolis Weather Bureau log book for that day states that the day felt "spring like."

Southern snow

The Deep South is looking more festive than parts of the Upper Midwest these days. Cold air pushing south is producing some impressive snowfall totals from Texas to Atlanta and beyond.

The snow works up the East Coast this weekend.