Temps rebound; fall color update

I returned Wednesday evening from a trip to the north shore of Lake Superior.

My wife and I saw some patches of great color, but many of the maples near Lutsen and Tofte are just beginning to reveal their red hues. Fall colors in that area are lagging a few days behind the pace of the past couple of years.

As a result, this coming weekend and next week could be great for fall color viewing along the north shore.

Some spots in Minnesota are showing peak fall color right now.

The latest Minnesota fall color report from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources shows that the most widespread areas of fall color are in parts of central and northern Minnesota:

A Wisconsin fall color report is also available.

Milder temps

The low pressure system over the Ohio river valley will weaken, then drift northwestward the next couple of days.

The result will be less wind today, but a few more clouds late Friday and Saturday.

Southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin could even see some scattered showers Friday night and Saturday.

Temps rebound a bit today, with highs in the mid to upper 60s over southeastern Minnesota:

Northern Minnesota will see mainly lower 60s.

Friday will be a bit warmer than today:

The average high this time of year is 66 degrees in the Twin Cities, so 70 tomorrow would be a bit above normal.

Tropical Storm Matthew

Tropical storm Matthew is in the Caribbean, well south of Puerto Rico.  Matthew's max winds have increased to 70 mph, and Matthew is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight.

Here is the latest public advisory from the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   4A...CORRECTED

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

800 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016

CORRECTED SPEED OF MOTION

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS MATTHEW A LITTLE STRONGER...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.1N 65.5W

ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO

ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ENE OF CURACAO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm

Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.

Interests along the coast of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor

the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was

located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 65.5 West.  Matthew is

moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a general westward

motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the

next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Matthew

is forecast to pass to the north of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao

through Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft

indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h)

with higher gusts.  Gradual strengthening is forecast during the

next 48 hours, and Matthew is forecast to become a hurricane later

today or tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)

primarily to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from

reconnaissance aircraft is 995 mb (29.38 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bonaire, Curacao,

and Aruba beginning late today.

RAINFALL:  Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall

accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and

southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday.  These

rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north

into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and

British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3

inches are expected over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao through Friday.

Matthew could approach Jamaica Sunday night. Here is the "cone of uncertainty", which shows the possible track of Matthew's center over the next few days:

Matthew is expected to take a sharp right turn next week.

Here is the spaghetti plot of Matthew's track from various computer models:

If the turn to the right happens later, or is not as sharp, the east coast of the U.S. could be affected by Hurricane Matthew next week.

The National Hurricane Center will post regular updates on tropical storm Matthew.