Bad hair advisory today, weekend warm front

"Don't even bother." -MPR's Cathy Wurzer's hair advice on Morning Edition today

My MPR News colleague Cathy Wurzer has some sage advice on hair and weather this morning. A March mini hurricane cranks up today as low pressure swirls through northern Minnesota cranking up wind gusts today.

Winds gust to more than 40 miles per hour in the Red River Valley prairies today. Gusts push 30 mph in the Twin Cities and eastern Minnesota.

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NOAA

Low pressure crosses northern Minnesota with a wintry mix today. Behind it, a blustery northwest wind and one more reminder that though winter is fading fast, the calendar still reads March.

One more frosty blue "H" courtesy of our friendly Canadian neighbors to the north.

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NOAA

Sunshine returns but temperatures run colder than average but through Friday before another warm front arrives. The magnitude of the weekend warm front looks significant, and temps should easily make the 60s again by next Tuesday.

A shot at 70 again Tuesday? The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts thinks so. Thankfully the Euro has backed off the fantasy of significant snow on April 1st.

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Weatherspark

March 2015: Milder than average

So far, March is running +3.8 degrees vs. average in the metro through Tuesday. We bump that number down the next three days, then close the month with temps well above average once again.

  • +3.8 degrees temps vs. average so far in March

  • 6.7 inches March snowfall to date (-1.9 inches)

  • 32.0 inches season snowfall at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport (-18.5 inches vs. average)

  • Lowest snowfall total since 2012 (22.3 inches)

  • 62.0 inches season snowfall last winter by this date

Yes, we got off easy this winter compared to average. And Boston.

New severe outlook categories this spring

Nobody does a better job forecasting severe storms than the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center. But I'll be honest. I'm not a fan of NOAA's updated severe "risk" categories.

Adding more categories of risk equals more potential confusion in my experience.

Effective communication of severe weather risk is every bit as important as forecasting the risk itself.

I just can't see how adding foggy terms like "marginal" and "enhanced" to slight, moderate, and high will help the public gauge the severe weather risk any better.

In my experience it will lead to more confusion, and that's the last thing we need when trying to help our audiences prepare for severe weather threats. I hope NWS will revisit this decision, but we will probably have to live with it for this season at least.

Spring outlook: Warm and dry?

NOAA released its spring outlook and places Minnesota in a zone favoring a warm dry spring. This outlook keeps my concerns high about the potential for drought this spring.