A beautiful Sunday; winter storm watch for Monday

Saturday was gorgeous all across Minnesota, and our Sunday will be sun-splashed and mild.

Winds will be light, and this will be a great day to play in the snow!

Afternoon highs in the 20s are expected over most of  northern and central Minnesota. Many spots in southern Minnesota will touch 30 degrees this afternoon.

There's ample snow cover over most of our state, according to the weekly snow depth map from the Minnesota State Climatology Office:

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rt115snowd
MN DNR/MN State Climatology Office

Snow conditions will deteriorate this coming week, with highs in the upper 30s in much of southern and central Minnesota on Wednesday. Many spots in southern Minnesota will top 40 degrees this coming Friday and Saturday, and we could also see some rain showers.

Wintry mix on Monday

A low-pressure system will spread moisture over Minnesota and western Wisconsin on Monday.

With surface temps slightly below freezing and warmer temps aloft, a mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow is possible on Monday and Monday evening, changing to mostly snow later Monday night.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential mix of precipitation:

rt115fcstsfc
NOAA NAM model simulated radar from 6 a.m. Monday to noon Tuesday, via tropicaltidbits

In the forecast loop, blue areas are where the precipitation is likely to be snow for that time in the loop. Purple areas are sleet or freezing rain. Green areas are likely to be rain, but the rain could freeze at ground level if surface temps are cold enough.

The color chart on the lower right of the loop refers to the strength of the radar signal returning to the radar, not inches of snow!

In the Twin Cities metro area, we could see some ice accumulation Monday afternoon and evening, and two or three inches of snow from Monday night into early Tuesday.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch from southwestern and south-central Minnesota through the Twin Cities metro area and Isanti and Chisago counties:

rt115adv2
NWS Twin Cities

In east-central Minnesota and the Twin Cities, the winter storm watch runs from noon Monday to noon Tuesday.

In south-central Minnesota, the watch goes from 6 a.m. Monday to 6 a.m. Tuesday.

In far southwestern Minnesota, the winter storm watch starts at 6 a.m. Monday and continues through Monday evening.

Winter weather advisories are in effect for Nobles and Jackson counties of southwestern Minnesota, starting at 6 a.m. Monday.

Here are some details of the watch, from the NWS:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

427 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

...WINTER STORM POSSIBLE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL

MINNESOTA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

.A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY

MORNING FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR WEST TO A LINE FROM REDWOOD FALLS

TO CAMBRIDGE. THIS SYSTEM HAS EXHIBITED A SLOWING TREND, THEREFORE

THE PRECIPITATION ONSET WILL OCCUR A BIT LATER, SO THE WATCH

START TIME HAS BEEN DELAYED BY 6 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR

SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS

NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH SOUTH OF WHERE THE SNOW FALLS.

SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN

ADDITION...IF SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPERIENCED...

SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES COULD OCCUR AS WELL DUE TO ICE

ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWER LINES.

MNZ051>053-058>063-065>070-075>077-151830-

/O.EXT.KMPX.WS.A.0001.170116T1800Z-170117T1800Z/

SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-

WASHINGTON-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-NICOLLET-

LE SUEUR-RICE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ELK RIVER, CAMBRIDGE, CENTER CITY,

LITCHFIELD, MONTICELLO, MINNEAPOLIS, BLAINE, ST PAUL, STILLWATER,

OLIVIA, HUTCHINSON, GAYLORD, CHASKA, SHAKOPEE, HASTINGS,

ST PETER, LE SUEUR, AND FARIBAULT

427 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

TUESDAY MORNING...

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON

THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON

THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 3 INCHES AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS

UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

* SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE.

* PLAN ON DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

Here's a summary, from the NWS:

rt115stry
NWS Twin Cities

A couple of degrees change in temperatures at low and mid levels of the atmosphere will change our precipitation type tomorrow, so check forecast updates.

---Midday advisory update---

The NWS La Crosse, WI office has issued a winter weather advisory for parts of southeastern Minnesota from 6 a.m. Monday through noon Tuesday:

rt115adv4
NWS La Crosse, WI

Here are some advisory details:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

1059 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

...WINTRY MIX TO IMPACT TRAVEL STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY

MORNING...

.A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN IS SET TO

SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WITH

THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...UNTREATED ROADS AND WALKWAYS ARE

EXPECTED TO BECOME SLIPPERY RATHER QUICKLY. THIS IS GOING TO

IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF

INTERSTATE 90.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND

SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BETWEEN 3 AM AND 6 AM...THEN INTO THE

INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 6 AM AND 9 AM. THUS...A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST

WISCONSIN STARTING AT 3 AM AND FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA

INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN STARTING AT 6 AM. WITH COLD ROAD SURFACES

AND A WINTRY MIX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS LATE AS TUESDAY

MORNING...THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON TUESDAY.

MNZ086>088-094>096-WIZ041>044-053-160100-

/O.NEW.KARX.WW.Y.0006.170116T1200Z-170117T1800Z/

DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-

JUNEAU-ADAMS-VERNON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DODGE CENTER...ROCHESTER...WINONA...

AUSTIN...PRESTON...CALEDONIA...LA CROSSE...SPARTA...TOMAH...

MAUSTON...FRIENDSHIP...VIROQUA

1059 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST

TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING

RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY.

* WINTRY MIX...STARTING OUT AS SNOW...SPREADING IN AFTER 6 AM.

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON

AND EVENING.

* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY 1 INCH OR LESS. ICE

ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/10 TO 2/10 OF AN INCH.

* ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY MAKE UNTREATED ROADS

AND WALKWAYS SLIPPERY. THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS LOOKING TO

BE IMPACTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

Ice storm to the south

Freezing rain continues to cause problems over the central and southern parts of our country.

Ice storm warnings continue from the Texas and Oklahoma panhandle areas into Kansas, Missouri and southeastern Nebraska and western Iowa:

rt115natadv3
NOAA/NWS

A winter weather advisory for a mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow covers the rest of Iowa.

Be sure to check the weather if you’re driving south today or tomorrow!

The NWS has clickable warning maps for detailed weather updates at any location.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.