Longest dry spell in 11 months, rain late tonight

Welcome to the longest dry stretch in 11 months in the Twin Cities.

Yes, it's been remarkably active over the past year in Minnesota. Our parade of storms has been relentless. The wettest year through the first half in much of Minnesota has mercifully eased back a bit this month for the metro.

  • 9 days in a row without rainfall at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport through today

  • 11 months since we've had a dry spell that long (Aug. 22-28, 2013)

  • 1.82 inches July rainfall at MSP Airport

  • -1.13 inches vs. average

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Tracking Minnesota's changing climate

I had the pleasure of taking with with a distinguished group of scientists about Minnesota's changing climate yesterday. One of those in attendance was Dr. Peter Snyder from the University of Minnesota. Dr. Snyder is a talented climate modeler who specializes in work on how Minnesota is affected by climate change at the regional level.

One of the trends he has observed is a noticeable spike in early warm season precipitation. This fits with his modeling, that suggests our spring and early summer are getting (much) wetter in Minnesota. The low level jet streams that deliver heavy rainfall to Minnesota in spring and early summer seem to be increasing in strength in Minnesota in recent decades.

The flip side of this trend is that somebody seems to be shutting of the water faucet in late July and early August. This trend has been remarkably strong in recent years.

Last year, the term "flash drought" made an appearance as Minnesota went from flood to drought in just a matter of weeks in late summer. Yes, increased rainfall variability seems to be the favored form of "weather whiplash" in Minnesota recently.

The big question now is what will the rest of summer and fall bring for rainfall across Minnesota?

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Our next weather maker is sparking scattered showers and thunderstorm in the Dakotas today. Rainfall chances increase as the system moves into Minnesota late tonight and Friday.

Here's a look at the next low sweeping in, with southern Minnesota the most favored area for rainfall through Friday.

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NOAA

The best bet for heavy rainfall approaching an inch is in southern Minnesota. Heavier rains will sweep into eastern Iowa and Chicago.

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NOAA

Right now Saturday looks like the warmer, sunnier more summery day of the weekend. Sunday bring cooler breezes and more free AC arrives next week.

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Weatherspark

Your energy bill is getting a rest this summer.